Basketball post today. I will share my screen printing frustrations later.
The 'big' offseason news for the Cavs is the signing of Devin Brown, a guard. I have 'big' in quotes because he is not considered to be a great player - the name wasn't familiar to me and that's why I didn't bother to post anything until now.
So yesterday I looked up his stats at the Wages of Wins and lo and behold - it looks like Devin was a productive player last year. Not spectacular, but he was above average. Considering that the Cavs haven't had even an average guard the past two years (the best has been Eric Snow, who was slightly below average last year)... as Carl Spackler would say, this looks like it could be gravy.
So I was inspired to put together my prediction, based solidly in statistics, on what the Cavs will do this year. And my prediction - drumroll - is that the Cavs will win 52 games. This would be a minor improvement over the past two 50-win seasons.
I am basing my prediction on the Win Score metric, and I am guesstimating the number of minutes allotted to each player. This is of utmost importance, because if Mike Brown were to play his best players the most the Cavs could improve by as much as 5 or 6 games - and a 57-win season would be a major upgrade.
However, we all know Mike, and so I expect Larry Hughes to lead the way in minutes per game for all guards as he did last year. I expect Gibson to get more minutes, but he will most certainly take minutes from Snow (who, as I mentioned, is more productive than Hughes).
A big 'if' is the future of Sasha Pavlovic, a restricted free agent. I am hoping that the recently acquired Brown will allow the Cavs to let him go, or work out a beneficial sign-and-trade. However, if he is still with the Cavs he will probably get minutes at Brown's expense.
The Cavs do not have an issue in the frontcourt. All their players there are productive. This is a huge advantage which makes their inability to get productive guards all the more frustrating.
Here are my calculations:
|2007-2008||WP48||future min||Wins Produced|
WP48 is the average WP48 score of each player from the past two years. Note: Gibson was a rookie, and players often improve as sophomores (see Deron Williams). Then again, sometimes it works the other way around...
Also note: last year Devin Brown posted a .130 WP48 in his third or fourth year in the league. I only have data for the past two years, but two years ago his WP48 was like 0.000. I don't know what to make of this. Hopefully last year is a better indicator of what he's capable of.
Future min is my guess, based in part on the average min/game played the past two years and on my knowledge of the team. I'm probably very close with the first five players (the frontcourt). The gaurds, as I mentioned, are a crapshoot. Thoughts?
Wins produced is derived by multiplying the min/game and 82 (games), multiplying the answer by WP48, then dividing it all by 48. For a full description of WP48, Wins Produced and the like see the Wages of Wins.
Final thoughts: I hope the Cavs get rid of Pavlovic and find the balls to drastically reduce Hughes' minutes. If they do that, and divide the bulk of the guard minutes between Snow, Gibson (assuming he improves at least a bit) and D. Brown (assuming he is as good as last year), the Cavs could increase their wins into the upper 50s and seriously contend for the title once again. I know this rational thinking will not take place on the Cleveland bench this year, but perhaps elements of it will (or injuries will require roster changes). It will be fun to find out what will happen, and that's why they play the games.